WHS • 2025

Litigation Release - Section III Minimum Deterrence US Nuclear Weapons and Priority Threats.pdf

-- 1 of 36 -- Table of Contents Introduction ....................................................................................................................................1 Minimum Deterrence Claims........................................................................................................2 U.S. Nuclear Weapons Irrelevant to the Priority Threat ............................................................2 Assessing the Threat of Nuclear Terrorism.................................................................................6 Probability of a Terrorist Nuclear Attack ..................................................................................6 The Consequences of a Nuclear Terrorist Attack ....................................................................12 Assessing the Threat of a State-based Nuclear Attack .............................................................15 Probability of a State-based Nuclear Attack ............................................................................15 The Consequences of a State-based Nuclear Attack................................................................27 Comparison of a Terrorist Nuclear Attack and State-based Nuclear Attack ........................29 Intent ........................................................................................................................................30 Capability .................................................................................................................................30 Probability ................................................................................................................................31 Consequences ...........................................................................................................................32 Summary and Conclusion ...........................................................................................................33 -- 2 of 36 -- 9302 Lee Highway, Suite 750 • Fairfax, VA 22031 • (703) 298-9181 • www.nipp.org Section III. Minimum Deterrence: U.S...