CIA • 1989

NID: USSR: THE OPTION OF FORCE IN THE BALTICS

Approved for Release: 2019/10/29 C06826769 Special Analysis USSR: The Option of Force in the Rallies The central party leadership is likely to persist in granting the Baltic republics greater autonomy while warning strongly against secession. President Gorbachev is gambling that a flexible and constructive approach to demands for autonomy eventually will erode secessionist sentiment, enabling him to or a show offorce that would cripple his reform program and cost him international good will. Moscow ultimately would use force to prevent the secession of a Baltic republic but has a variety of options short of a major military crackdown to deter Baltic nationalists from moves toward secession...